LOCAL PRESS

Vucic meets with heads of security services on the eve of his meeting with Serb officials from B&H (RTS)

On Wednesday evening, a day before the meeting with Serb representatives from B&H and the Republika Srpska (RS), Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic met with representatives of intelligence security services and the defense sector, Radio and Television of Serbia (RTS)reported. It is assumed that the topic of Vucic’s conversation with security officials is relations in the region, primarily with Croatia, with whom the relations have been in constant tension in the last two months, and B&H, because of the referendum in RS, announced for 25 September. Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic and Vucic have scheduled a meeting with leaders of RS and representatives of Serbs in joint state bodies of B&H for Thursday afternoon. At 2.30 pm they will talk with a member of the B&H Presidency Mladen Ivanic, RS President Milorad Dodik, RS Prime Minister Zeljka Cvijanovic and president of the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) Mladen Bosic.

Vucic: I don’t see the point of the meeting (Tanjug)

Ahead of the meeting with Serb officials from B&H and RS, Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has voiced regret that they had passed decisions beforehand, and presented stands to the public, contrary to what they had agreed, adding that the meeting could have been skipped.

“I do not violate agreement that we reach. I do not go public with my policy. I can’t stand easy and popular solutions that thrill the people,” said Vucic. I don’t intend to exert pressure on anybody, Vucic said. He added that, despite their agreement not to go public with their positions, some have presented their decisions, and expressed regret that he had no opportunity to present his opinion. He said that he and his closest associates last night had difficult and serious conversations that lasted until 1 a.m. and that he continued with meetings this morning.  Vucic stressed that he does not want to exert pressure – everyone is entitled to make their own decisions within their solutions. “I regret that we could not talk and that I could not present my ideas, he said. Vucic also noted that Dragan Covic will also be in Belgrade today, and receive proper welcome here, out of our desire to have best relations with everyone.  LDP: Postpone presenting of opinion; SNP: Do not deprive Serbs of democratic rights;   Omerovic: Dodik does not care about people (Politika)

LDP leader Cedomir Jovanovic called on authorities in Belgrade to make influence on the RS to give up on the announced referendum. Jovanovic said that Serbia must not respond with new mistakes, no matter how wrong the moves of official Sarajevo are. He also urged top officials of Serbia to make an influence in order to make sure the referendum is cancelled. SNP leader Nenad Popovic said that holding of the referendum is a sign of the most organized democratic societies and added that Serbs must not be deprived of that right. President of the Commission for Human and Minority Rights of the Serbian parliament Meho Omerovic said that Serbia has no right to meddle in internal matters of B&H, but he noted that he hopes Dodik will calm the situation down and postpone the referendum.

Djuric: Aim of Tachi’s visit to Jarinje was causing riots (Tanjug/VIP)

The Head of the Office for Kosovo and Metohija Marko Djuric said that Tachi’s sudden and unannounced visit to Jarinje had been performed and premeditated with a goal of provoking riots, excesses and violence, and destabilizing the situation in parts inhabited by Serbs. Djuric called Tachi’s visit to the border crossing Jarinje “a visit to the container”. The integrated service of the Kosovo police and customs works there, together with the one from Serbia, and they are all accommodated in containers. “We thank the citizens thanks to whose wise and thoughtful reaction this obvious provocation remained fruitless. We will continue working calmly but steadily together with the citizens on the protection of the interests of Serbian people and Serbia in its southern province,” Djuric told Tanjug.

Juncker responds to Vucic’s letter (Tanjug/Novosti)

European Commission President Jean Claude Junker replied to the letter by Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic in which he warned of Croatia’s actions which jeopardize good neighbor relations and complicate the situation in the region. The details of the letter were not published. European Commission spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic told Tanjugthat Junker expressed concern over the latest developments in Serbia-Croatia relations and called for a return to constructive bilateral engagement. Junker said that good neighbor relations and regional cooperation, as well as reconciliation are fundamental principles which have to be respected by all EU candidate countries as well as all EU members in the region. Those principles are obligatory for the entire region, Junker said. The EU expects all relevant state to continue to respect those obligations. He said that under EU law, EU member states are obliged to make sure that those crimes are punishable which countries which want to become EU members are expected to behave in accordance with those laws.

Vucic respects Juncker, but can’t stand false symmetries (Tanjug/B92)

Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic said on Thursday that he does not want to talk about the European Commission’s response to his letter. Vucic also said that he respects European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, but can’t stand false symmetries. “I’m not going to say anything because I greatly respect Juncker. I don’t want to say anything about the content of the letter. I cannot stand it when everything is being equated and when false symmetries and balances are being made, I think that all honorable people have difficulty standing that,” said Vucic. He also said this was being passed over not because we are weak, but because we are strong enough to care about our future. “This is also the answer to the dilemma of why we will not respond to Croatia, or anyone else. They have called our people and our state, not some politician, ‘a handful of miserable’ and we remained silent to that as well,” he recalled. Vucic then concluded that he would certainly win the most points with a brutal response, but that he would not do that, because he wants to care for the future.

Dacic: They missed the topic (RTS/Tanjug)

In reaction to Juncker’s response to Vucic’s letter, Serbian Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic has stated that the EU continues to keep its head in the sand. Juncker didn’t respond to one single specific question pointed out by Vucic, didn’t comment the rehabilitation of the NDH fascist Ustasha regime, nor the acquittal of war criminals from the past war, nor the erecting of the monument to the Ustasha terrorist Baresic, nor the insulting of the Serbian state. He added that he didn’t expect anything so he was not disappointed. He added that Juncker even failed to say what it is we have not done. “I said it in advance that the EU is playing deaf and dumb when it comes to the anti-Serb policy. However, it is always ready to preach Serbia when it dislikes something in Serbia. It can no longer continue this way. We did not ask you about world peace, but about the anti-Serb policy of one of your member-states, which threatens peace and stability in the region. Honestly, I did not expect anything, and so I’m not disappointed. Today even the children don’t believe fairy tales anymore. As I indicated yesterday, it’s as if they were the Tibet lamas, and so the EU is declaring itself philosophically about the ‘miserable handful’ problem – the anti-Serb policy. They missed the topic,” Dacic concluded.

Stefanovic: Better if they didn’t write anything (Tanjug)

In reaction of Juncker’s response to Vucic’s letter, Serbian Interior Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic told Tanjug: “I hope that Serbia and Prime Minister Vucic will handle the writing and non-writing of Juncker and the EU. As far as I am concerned, it would have been better if they hadn’t responded or written.”

REGIONAL PRESS

Dodik: No ban can prevent referendum (TVN1)

There is no imaginable ban that could prevent the holding of the referendum on Srpska Day on 25 September, RS President Milorad Dodik said late on Thursday. In his opinion, the referendum is a poll and obtaining of the people’s opinion that will be respected by the politicians. “The SDA (Party of Democratic Action) cannot expect RS to calmly watch Bakir Izetbegovic abolish Republika Srpska Day,” Dodik told TV N1, pointing out that the B&H Constitutional Court had not even made a decision cancelling 9 January. There are a lot of different standards and no one should think RS will put up with it, he said. “There’s no compromise or objectivity because someone believes we should accept Bakir Izetbegovic’s request to abolish Republika Srpska Day and be silent about it,” said Dodik. The people in RS are proud of what’s happening regarding the referendum on Srpska Day, he added. “We won’t let the people down. The people want 9 January and they’ll have,” said Dodik. Should the Central Election Commission of B&H fail to provide voter lists, RS will re-examine its laws and put in charge an entity body of providing the lists instead of the CEC, Dodik asserted. The referendum also gives an opportunity to the Bosniaks to express their political view, he underlined. “They are free to either go to polls or not. That’s a political view too,” concluded Dodik. In his opinion, the B&H Constitutional Court had not proved to be the place for making objective decisions. “They only insist on the talk about Republika Srpska. How come that constitutionality of the Serbs in the Federation of B&H and cantons is not binding? Where are the Serbs in the House of Peoples of the Federation parliament? How come no one has tried to resolve that issue by putting on the agenda the famous PIC that takes care of everything? Do they really believe there is no limit to reshaping and putting pressure just on the Serbs?” Dodik asked.

Salkic: PIC has obligation to stop secessionist, referendum action (TV1)

RS Vice-President Ramiz Salkic said that there are two options after the announcement of the decision on holding the referendum in the RS on the Day of the RS. According to Salkic, the first option would be for the RS authorities to give up on the referendum, while the second option would be for the OHR to abolish the decision of the RS National Assembly (RSNA) on holding the referendum. Salkic underlined that PIC has an obligation to stop this secessionist, referendum action. “If we have a situation in which the B&H Constitutional Court reached a decision and the RS Assembly asked for a review of that decision, it is quite logical to conclude that the referendum represents pressure on the work of the B&H Constitutional Court,” Salkic underlined.

Covic: PIC’s statement is balanced (Fena)

B&H Presidency member Dragan Covic toldFena that he never before commented conclusions of the PIC and that now he would like to say that apparently everyone takes from the PIC’s statement what goes in their favor. “I think that the PIC’s statement is balanced. The Constitution must be respected, the Constitutional Court’s decisions are passed and as such they are unquestionable, and on the other hand you cannot restrict in any way certain levels of authorities to pass some decisions in line with their competences or to build up their own stances in communication with each citizen, because there is no more democratic form than that,” Covic concluded.

Zvizdic: PIC’s joint statement is positive but insufficient step towards protection of constitutional and legal arrangement of B&H (FTV)

Chairman of the B&H Council of Ministers Denis Zvizdic issued a statement on Wednesday which reads that the joint statement and opinion of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) regarding the referendum on the Day of the RS is positive but insufficient step towards protection of constitutional and legal arrangement of B&H. The statement further reads that the referendum has suspended all crucial topics and issues which should be discussed and it violates the B&H Constitution and the Dayton Peace Accords while increasing tensions and jeopardizing peace. Zvizdic called for respecting of the B&H Constitutional Court’s decision regarding the Day of the RS, accepting of the PIC’s stance regarding the referendum and the final decision of the Office of High Representative.

Ivantsov: I believe referendum will be held (RTRS)

Asked about the ambient at the Tuesday’s session of the PIC, at which RS authorities were called on not to hold the referendum on RS Day, Russian Ambassador to B&H Petr Ivantsov stated that the fact that the session was postponed once says that there is no single stance among PIC members. He said the session was not postponed only because of Russian stance. Ivantsov said that a simple ban of the referendum is not an optimal solution and added that there should not be any condemnation, but to trace a route for finding a solution. He noted that B&H Constitutional Court banned a people to celebrate its holiday and added that it was rather supposed to take into consideration the specialty of this country. Asked if Russia was alone in their stance, Ivantsov refused to convey stances of his colleagues, but said the final result is well known. “We did not find a joint solution,” he said. Asked if the PIC can reach decisions by majority of members, Ivantsov explained that the PIC is an advisory board. He said the High Representative can reach decisions alone, but if these decisions are supported by the PIC they are stronger. Ivantsov stressed that statement of the PIC harms a half of B&H and said that Russia deems that they should work harder in favor of dialogue, to find a solution that will be in interest of all three peoples. Asked if the High Representatives displays weakness, since use of Bonn powers were not discussed at the session, Ivantsov said that it is not an issue. He said more than 20 years passed since the Dayton Peace Accords (DPA) and added that BiH is not the same country as it was 20 years ago. Ivantsov reminded that when Bonn powers were last used in 2011, when the FB&H government was formed, the situation turned up very bad. He stressed that the use of Bonn powers brings more damage than benefits and said his colleagues do not wish such radical measures. According to Ivantsov, Bonn powers should be used as last resource, but not when an issue can be solved by dialogue.

Croatian politicians are against referendum on RS Day (N1)

HDZ leader Andrej Plenkovic stated that his party is against the referendum and added that they will support B&H on its EU path. He said the referendum is dangerous and destabilizing for B&H and just a step towards secession of the RS. After making controversial statements on B&H recently, SDP leader Zoran Milanovic explained that he meant he will not allow the RS to secede. Croatian Minister of Foreign Affairs Miro Kovac called on Serbian authorities to persuade RS leaders to give up on the referendum. He said Croatia wants B&H to persist as a state and Croats to be equal to other peoples. Reporter noted that although election campaign is ongoing in Croatia, all Croatian politicians agree when it comes to the referendum, which means that RS President Milorad Dodik does not have support in Croatia.

Ambassador of Kosovo: Albanians influenced establishing Montenegro (CDM)

Albanians in Montenegro represent a bridge of cooperation between the two countries and they were a significant factor in establishing Montenegro, Ambassador of Kosovo in Podgorica Skender Durmishi said.Durmishi met the president of the National Council of Albanians in Montenegro, Genci Nimanbegu, which was the first official meeting between the ambassador and Nimanbergu, since Durmishi is the first accredited ambassador of Kosovo to Montenegro. The president of the National Council of Albanians in Montenegro presented the work of the council and the status and situation of Albanians in Montenegro. “You must see the embassy as a partner in implementation of your projects regarding culture, education and particularly the economy,” Durmishi said, adding that regional and bilateral cooperation is one of the key requirements of Euro-Atlantic integration. He said that the cooperation between Montenegro and Kosovo was very positive and that it was an excellent example of cooperation. “Kosovo understands our issues and our needs very well. It helped us in the past but some issues need to be re-actualized together with the Embassy of Kosovo. I believe that the cooperation in economy and launching joint projects in infrastructure will be in the general interest, such as construction of Decan–Plav road. The project will particularly contribute to the economic development of the north of Montenegro, i.e. the residents of Plav and Gusinje and help these residents do not move out,” said Nimanbegu.

Political parties set 11 December as date for early elections (Republika)

The leaders of four main political parties in Macedonia set 11 December as a date for early parliamentary elections. They signed an agreement to that effect late Wednesday, confirming that all conditions for holding early parliamentary elections in 2016 under the 20 July 2016 deal have been met and therefore agree to hold the elections on 11 December 2016. Under the agreement, the parliament will be dissolved according to Macedonia’s constitution, while the government to organize the upcoming poll is to be elected on 2 September 2016 in accordance with the 20 July 2016 Agreement. Santa Argirova will be appointed Editor-in-Chief of the national broadcaster MRTV on 2 September and will hold the position until the end of the election process. The parties call upon the four members of the ad-hoc committee for monitoring media coverage of the election process to elect Luzlim Haziri as its fifth member. The leaders also commit to a democratic and competitive election campaign, free of violence and intimidation. They will condemn any use of language, or any kind of action, which might incite violence and intimidation, Wednesday’s agreement reads.

Hahn and Mogherini welcome political agreement to hold elections (MIA)

European Foreign Policy Representative Federica Mogherini and Commissioner Johannes Hahn issued a joint statement after the four main Macedonian political parties reached an agreement to hold elections on 11 December. “We welcome that the leaders of the four main political parties took a number of important decisions on the way ahead in implementing their political agreement of last year, including setting the date of the early parliamentary election for 11 December. We call on all political parties to strictly observe a credible electoral process, to allow all citizens a free choice and, after the elections, to build a government that tackles crucial reforms and works for the interests of all citizens. In the same vein, all political forces must urgently reenergize their efforts to implement the rest of the political agreement, including the Urgent Reform Priorities,” Mogherini and Hahn said in their statement. The statement also adds that the EU will continue its support this process and to help Macedonia return to its Euro-Atlantic path.

Gruevski, Zaev, Ahmeti on agreement (Republika)

Following the four party agreement to hold early election on 11 December, VMRO-DPMNE leader Nikola Gruevski said that he is satisfied that the opposition SDSM party will not be able to raise additional objections and to avoid the elections for a third time. “We made a number of steps to bring SDSM to a situation where they will no longer be able to postpone the elections, where they have no more places to hide. They will have to face the people, to allow the people to go to the polls and to speak their minds. I know full well that the people will punish them for their actions in the past year and a half, will punish them for all that they’ve done to Macedonia,” said Gruevski. He added that this time, unlike in the two previous instances this year when the elections were postponed, SDSM has signed a statement with which they confirm that they will take part in the elections on 11 December. “Of course, given what they’ve done in the past months, their statements have to be taken with a grain of salt, because we can never be sure what they’ll do in the meantime. Everything they decided to ask for today has been accepted and answered, so they had to sign the statement that they will go to the polls, and give the voters the final word. We want to be in that situation, to have the voters decide,” said Gruevski, whose party maintains a solid lead over SDSM in the opinion polls. Hours before the talks concluded, Gruevski left saying that VMRO-DPMNE has accepted all the latest SDSM requests and that he will allow the opposition party to work with the two parties that represent ethnic Albanians, DUI and DPA, on the remaining issues that touch their interests. This included personnel decisions on a media regulation body. Gruevski said that VMRO-DPMNE will continue to be the option for voters who want to see constructive steps, new investments and more jobs being opened in Macedonia, while SDSM will be the party of destruction and crisis-mongering. “Every time before the elections, SDSM is making threats, issues warnings, declares that they will win… We’ve seen them do that in past election cycles, and we will see them do that in the coming 100 days. They will threaten, they will intimidate, and they will be saying all sorts of things, how the people were ready to let them liberate Macedonia, or something. We will hear all sorts of things from them in the next 100 days. But the people are aware, mature, and they will make the right decision, on which political option is more mature and is better able to lead the country further,” said Gruevski.

On 11 December we shall not only decide on the fate of ours but also of many future generations, opposition SDSM leader Zoran Zaev said late Wednesday after the main political parties signed an agreement on holding early general poll this December. “These elections will be a referendum at which citizens will decide if they wish to live in poor, criminal country or a rich and one ruled by the law, 11 December will bring changes for the better and new future to the citizens of Macedonia,” he said.

“This is a great day for Macedonia. Eventually all parliamentary parties confirmed that all conditions for holding fair, democratic and free elections had been met,” DUI leader Ali Ahmeti said late Wednesday.

INTERNATIONAL PRESS

Divided West Leaves Bosnia’s ‘Governor’ Exposed (BIRN, by Srecko Latal, 31 August 2016)

The Office of the High Representative has suffered a major blow after the international community declined to support it against the Bosnian Serb referendum – which may have dire implications.

The Peace Implementation Council, PIC, the ad-hoc body made up of countries and international organizations overseeing the OHR’s work and implementation of Bosnia’s 1995 peace agreement, withheld international support for use of the OHR’s executive powers at Tuesday’s meeting. The outcome has left Bosnia’s peace agreement without one of the main mechanisms designed to maintain peace in the country, greatly complicating the situation on the ground. A perception that Bosnia’s “Western Emperor”, the once mighty OHR, is now more of less powerless may well encourage local leaders to push their nationalist agendas even further, at a time when all the leaders of Bosnia’s main ethnic groups are rattling their sabres and threatening each other. Preoccupied by bigger internal and external crises, the US and the EU have ignored the warning signs from Bosnia for months and years. Their growing detachment from Bosnia has been used by local leaders to push their personal and party agendas, effectively undermining Bosnia’s peace treaty. Milorad Dodik, leader of the mainly Serb entity, Republika Srpska, and head of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, SNSD, has proven to be the strongest and most determined opponent of international executive powers in Bosnia. After challenging the OHR for years, Dodik this year launched an initiative for an RS-wide referendum in support of January 9 as the RS National Day, which Bosnia’s Constitutional Court earlier declared unconstitutional. Regardless of the Court ruling and the OHR’s statement that such a referendum would violate Bosnia’s peace agreement, the referendum has been endorsed by all Bosnian Serb parties and confirmed by RS institutions. It is scheduled for September 25, only a week ahead of Bosnia’s local elections.

PIC session reveals international divide:

The OHR postponed the PIC session for few weeks to give foreign diplomats time to get back from their holidays and to muster international support for a joint stand against the referendum. Yet, as expected, the attempt failed. Tuesday’s PIC session proved not only that Russia was against even mentioning the use of executive powers, but that the West is divided as well. While some Western countries favoured the OHR using its powers against the referendum, most were against it. Some thought use of these powers inconsistent with Bosnia’s EU path, while others were concerned that, without a much stronger NATO presence in Bosnia, there was no one to guarantee the implementation of OHR decisions. After a few hours of debates, most PIC members only agreed on a lukewarm communiqué, which merely “urged” the RS authorities not to hold the referendum. Even that was too much for Russia, whose ambassador, Petr Ivancov, refused to sign the communiqué, saying its text was only “threatening and condemning”.

West pins hopes on local mechanisms:

What contributed to this Western reluctance to use executive powers in Bosnia was a lingering hope that the issue may still be resolved through local mechanisms or regional influence.

Bosnia’s Constitutional Court is set to discuss the RS referendum again on September 17.

The Court will then debate both the RS appeal to nullify its previous ruling on the RS National Day, as well as a Bosniak appeal to outlaw the RS referendum. However, many doubt that the Constitutional Court will solve anything. This body made up of nine judges – two elected from each of the three ethnic groups and three international ones – is expected to rule against the referendum in another split decision, which Dodik will then ignore as he has done repeatedly before. Another hope is pinned on Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, who singlehandedly blocked Dodik’s previous initiative for two similar referenda earlier this year by denying his support. Following Tuesday’s PIC session, Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic chaired an urgent meeting with Vucic and Serbia’s Foreign Minister, Ivica Dacic, in Belgrade on Tuesday. During the meeting, Dacic briefly said only that Serbia would do all it could “to protect our national, state interests” and ensure “security in the country and hopefully in the region”. The Serbian leadership offered no further explanation of its standpoint, but said it would meet RS representatives on Thursday in Belgrade to discuss the situation. The meeting confused some observers, since in the past months different sources close to Vucic maintained that he would not interfere with the latest RS referendum as long as the referendum question did not openly challenge the authority of either Bosnian or international institutions. On January 9 this year, Vucic and members of his cabinet travelled to the RS administrative centre of Banja Luka, to show their support for this date being celebrated as the RS National Day. Some sources close to the Serbian and RS leadership said that Vucic and Dodik could again agree to put off this referendum in exchange for some other unspecified concessions from the US or EU. It is believed that Vucic’s past positive influence on the RS contributed to the EU’s decision earlier this year to open Chapters 23 and 24 in Serbia’s accession talks. But other sources said that yet another setback to his referendum initiatives could hurt Dodik badly in the middle of his election campaign, which is why the referendum is likely to take place no matter what.

When the cat’s away, mice will play:

While the West waits to see whether Bosnia’s Constitutional Court or Serbia will save its face one more time, local and international experts are trying to figure out the possible consequences if the referendum takes place. Some say the referendum will have no legal implications since – if it is held despite the decision of Bosnia’s Constitutional Court and the OHR – it will be legally null and void. However, others say it could set a legal precedent for further acts undermining state and international institutions. The Bosniak member of Bosnia’s state presidency, Bakir Izetbegovic, has already called the referendum a “test balloon”, warning that, in the absence of a firm international reaction, it could lead to another referendum on secession from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Holding the referendum would also send a message to Bosniaks that the security mechanisms built into the Dayton agreement have been effectively abandoned, and that now it is up to them to guarantee Bosnia’s territorial and constitutional integrity. The fact that the Bosniak leadership, as well as different administrative units, organizations, institutions and even individuals, have also been ignoring decisions of the state Constitutional Court, 76 of whose decisions remain unimplemented and ignored, is lost on most Bosniaks. Some insist they are ready to use arms to defend their country. One association of Bosniak war veterans, the “Green Berets”, has already announced plans to host a live-ammunition military exercise in the near future, and has asked the Bosnian Armed Forces to provide them with weapons and ammunition. The exercise is officially termed part of the veterans’ intentions to acquaint themselves with new weapons obtained by Bosnia’s armed forces. But most see the Bosniak veterans’ response as a reaction to last weekend’s joint exercise organized by the RS and Serbian special police near the Bosnia-Serbia border, as well as a message to Dodik following his recent warning that the RS may split from Bosnia in 2018. These and other warnings and threats, which have intensified in recent weeks, fuelled by pre-election campaigns and debates about the RS referendum, have increased tensions, recalling the atmosphere of the early 1990s when Bosnia’s nationalist leaders rattled their swords ahead of the outbreak of war. Many citizens express fears that the country may go down that road again, now the international security mechanisms envisaged to guarantee the peace seem to have been turned off.

West appears to be in retreat:

Regardless of how potentially dangerous the situation in Bosnia seems, there are no painless ways out. Even the international intervention that Bosniak officials call for would hardly make the situation any better. Whatever the international community does – or does not do – will likely make the situation worse. If it continues to ignore the latest dangerous developments, it risks encouraging further radicalization. However, imprudent action by the West could open up a new “Pandora’s box” and further destabilize the whole region. One reason for that is the changed geostrategic situation, which has altered dramatically since the 1990s when the US bestrode the global scene. Today, both the EU and US looked weakened. Amid growing Russian and Turkish influences, any ill-conceived Western move could draw reactions from Moscow or Ankara, which would in turn add fuel to smouldering local fires. Another reason is the OHR’s past actions, often ill conceived, inconsistent and experimental, which failed to eliminate old local tensions and contributed to the creation of new ones. Those past mistakes came to the fore on Tuesday, when media reported that a US District Court, in Columbia, had agreed to process the legal action that Bosnian veteran journalist Zoran Zuza launched against the OHR after the OHR dismissed him in 2004 without explanation. The court ruled that the OHR cannot be treated as exempt from law, thus creating a possible a legal precedent for further legal actions against this organization. One may well ask, who can save Bosnia now – and how? Any permanent solution for such a divided and weakened country would require squabbling local and international actors to reach compromises on a range of difficult issues. Since there seems to be no readiness for any such compromises, however, chances of an easy way out seem slim, too.

Balkans tighten borders as Turkey waits for EU to meet terms (The Irish Times, by Daniel McLaughlin, 31 August 2016)

Ankara warns that Europe will face ‘huge risk’ unless bloc drops visa rules for Turks

Balkan states are on the alert for any surge in the number of asylum seekers heading for western Europe, as Ankara warns the EU over the issue and Greece struggles to cope with more than 58,000 refugees and migrants on its territory. The EU and Turkey agreed a controversial deal to cut refugee numbers crossing the Mediterranean Sea in March, and Balkan states also officially closed their borders to migrants. The result has been a sharp reduction in the number of refugees and migrants reaching the EU, but experts warn of several factors that could reignite a crisis that last year brought more than a million asylum seekers to Europe. On Monday, some 460 people landed on Greek islands from Turkey – almost as many as arrived during the whole of the previous week and the biggest daily figure for several months. At the same time, Serbia still regularly intercepts migrants who have trekked overland from Turkey via Bulgaria, or who arrive from Macedonia having abandoned Greece’s overcrowded camps or bypassed them completely. On Monday, a Serbian joint police and army patrol operating near the country’s border with Bulgaria stopped 64 Afghans who had crossed the frontier illegally and were being put into a van and two cars by smugglers.

Shot dead

Three people were arrested over the incident, which came barely a week after an Afghan migrant was shot dead near the Serbia-Bulgaria border and police detained a hunter who was found in the area. Greece and Bulgaria are particularly alarmed by neighbouring Turkey’s thinly veiled threats to let far greater numbers of migrants reach the EU unless the bloc drops visa rules for Turks and delivers aid promised in the March deal. Turkish prime minister Binali Yildirim warned Bulgarian counterpart Boyko Borisov last week that any EU failure to meet Ankara’s terms by the end of October “would put Europe under huge risk.” It is not clear whether Monday’s spike in arrivals on the Greek islands signalled a relaxation in Turkey’s controls along its coastline, but Greece is already struggling to cope with more than 58,000 migrants and refugees in its camps. During a recent visit to Greece, UN refugee agency chief Filippo Grandi said living conditions and security at the camps were inadequate. He also urged EU states to implement fully a plan to accommodate 160,000 refugees from warzones like Syria and Iraq, only 4,500 of whom have so far been accepted.