LOCAL PRESS
Orban: We will not have anyone blocking Serbia’s EU path (RTS/Tanjug)
Hungary will not have anyone blocking Serbia’s EU accession – a country’s accomplishments in the integration process should be the only benchmark, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Monday. That is what must be decisive, rather than integration itself or whether someone likes someone else or not, Orban said after a meeting with Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic, adding that he had offered assurances to his counterpart that this was Hungary’s position and that it would act accordingly. Orban noted he himself had experienced a time of high support for Hungary’s EU accession, which he said had become absent later. He said he was glad the two governments would hold a joint session this autumn – not in Belgrade or Vojvodina, but in another part of Serbia. We want to bring our economies closer together and enable investors to get to know each other, he concluded. The possibility of the migrant crisis worsening cannot be ruled out and European countries must be ready for that, Orban said in Belgrade, noting Hungary would do nothing in this regard that could threaten Serbia. If we look at how loose the agreement of the EU, Turkey and Germany is, we cannot rule out the possibility of having the same situation as we did last year, Orban told a joint press conference with Vucic. Hungarian and Serbian security authorities will cooperate on the issue, and Hungary is offering help, Orban noted. When asked how Hungary would help Serbia, Orban said Serbia was a sovereign country and that assistance would only be provided in a way accepted by the country. It is in our interest that no one can cross into Serbia illegally as that also boosts Hungary’s security, Orban said.
Stefanovic: Protection of state interests cannot jeopardize Serbo-Croatian relations (Tanjug)
Serbian Interior Minister Nebojsa Stefanovic said that the arrest of the suspected Croatian spy could not additionally jeopardize instable relations between the two countries, because the matter in question was implementation of the law and protection of the state and state interests. “But, if any state should attempt to actively participate in bringing down of our state order, then it could only show that this state had no good intentions towards Serbia,” Stefanovic said.
Stojanovic: Arrest will contribute to stabilization of Serbo-Croatian relations (Politika)
The former director of Military Security Agency (VBA) Momir Stojanovic told Politika that time of arrest could not be chosen in such situations. He said that Colovic’s arrest could also be a bad move if it was only directed towards marketing and other daily political purposes. “By his status, he could not reach some information that was a military or state secret but he found out something in discussions and contacts with certain members of military or other institutions. The investigation should reveal a whole chain, because he did not do it on his own. It is thus necessary to determine why he did it, which information was given, who were his associates, mediators, connections… this is not just an individual arrest of one person but discovery of the whole network that was with him,” Stojanovic emphasized. He believed that behind the activities of Croatian intelligence service in the Balkans, there was usually activity of German intelligence service. “Croatian intelligence service is working a good share of jobs in the Balkans for the German intelligence service. In many occasions that were a subject of security services in the past there were direct connections between Croatian and German intelligence services, at least when the activities were directed towards Serbia,” Stojanovic said.
New team for ZSO (Novosti)
The newly appointed members of the Management Team for drafting the Statute of the Community of Serb Municipalities (ZSO) are supposed to travel to Brussels on Thursday, when they will most probably be officially presented to the public. The past members of the Management Team were proposed by official Belgrade in Brussels, along with Pristina’s consent, which is also expected with the new members whose names are still unknown. It is speculated in Kosovo and Metohija that new members might be Vinka Radosavljevic, the Head of the Pec District, one member from Strpce, as well as two members from the north of the province.
Stands of Serbs from northern Kosovo on ZSO (Politika)
The Brussels dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina has divided the stands of residents of northern Kosovo, while most controversies among interviewed were brought by the ZSO. This is the result of a public opinion survey that has been conducted by several portals and NGOs under the auspices of the Kosovo Open Society Foundation. “More than half of the interviewed had negative answers in regard to the Brussels Agreement, so those who oppose this described this negotiating process as treason, capitulation and a step towards independent Kosovo. The same number of interviewed opine that the Brussels dialogue is good for the local Serbs, since it will lead to a compromise, a step towards a better life, reconciliation and co-existence,” journalist of the Kossev portal Ana Marija Ivkovic told Politika, adding that the research was conducted via internet and that six surveys had been conducted so far, which had, along with a specific topic, the Brussels dialogue as the basis. Presenting the results of the project “Residents of the north publicly about the Brussels Agreement”, she says that among the interviewed from all four municipalities in northern Kosovo – Zvecan, Zubin Potok, Leposavic and northern Kosovska Mitrovica – there is noticeable fear whether the ZSO will be formed at all. If the ZSO is finally established, the interviewed expect it to be conditioned with Kosovo receiving an international dialing code, establishing a Kosovo independent energy system and forming the Kosovo army. That the future ZSO will be an NGO is considered by 36 percent of interviewed, while 29 percent opine that it will not be established at all. That it will be an institution with executive powers is considered by 19 percent, while critical stands dominate among 15 percent of those who descriptively expressed themselves. “The survey showed that as many as 39 percent of Serbs believe that after the formation of the ZSO the Serbs will be integrated into the Kosovo healthcare and education system, while only 13 percent think that things will be as until now. Of the residents who took part in our internet survey, 35 percent are convinced that the Serbs will not enjoy greater rights and freedoms, while only six percent do not share their opinion,” said Ana Marija Ivkovic.
Joksimovic: Government fully committed to EU integration (Tanjug)
The new Serbian government is fully committed to European integration, minister without portfolio in charge of EU integration Jadranka Joksimovic said Friday. “It is clear Serbia is strategically committed to EU membership,” Joksimovic said told a conference marking 15 years of the EU-Serbia partnership. “We are not pursuing a policy that is from one day to the next, but a development policy that is significant for the internal development of a country, and I hope the citizens will see that,” she stated. She said capacities at local level must be strengthened to make better use of EU funds. Serbia and the EU share a common interest – Serbia’s EU membership, Joksimovic said.
Kuburovic: Serbia continues negotiations on Chapter 23 in October (Tanjug)
Serbia would continue the negotiations with the EU about Chapter 23, which regarded judiciary, early in October and it would be prepared to resolve possible misunderstandings with Croatia on a bilateral level, Serbian Justice Minister Nela Kuburovic said on Saturday in an interview to Tanjug. “Representatives of European Commission (EC) should visit Serbia in the first week of October, in order to determine some measures of marking if the state was fulfilling its obligation from the Action Plan for Chapter 23, as well as to find an agreement on specific way of reporting to the EC,” Kuburovic said. She said that Serbia would afterwards have specific measures and know exactly how it would report to the EC if they acted in accordance with the Action Plan and took all measures within the set schedules. When asked if Croatia could block Serbia during the negotiation process considering the rhetoric from Zagreb, Kuburovic said that it would be too early to talk about it considering the number of open chapters and whose realization should begin. She reiterated that the Action Plan for Chapter 23 was supported by all EU members, including Croatia. Kuburovic said that Serbia obliged through the Action Plan to change the Constitution in terms of stronger independence during the selection of people for judicial offices. After enacting of the new Constitution, which would include a wider social consensus, the next obligation of the Justice Ministry would be to prepare the changes in Law on Judges, Law on Public Prosecution, Law on High Council of Judiciary and Law on State Council of Prosecutors as soon as possible, Kuburovic announced.
Dodik: Vucic says he will not interfere with RS internal affairs (Kurir)
“Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic did not oppose or support the referendum in Republika Srpska (RS). I believe that this is consistent from Vucic, he said he would not interfere in internal affairs of RS, and this is a sign of not interfering”, President of RS Milorad Dodik said in an interview for Kurir daily on Sunday. “I expected to hear argumentation at the meeting between the state leadership [of Serbia and RS], and this actually happened. We saw a continuity and consistency of Serbia’s state policy not to interfere in internal affairs, support Dayton Peace Agreement, territorial integrity of B&H, but also the position of RS as a part of that agreement. Speculators now say different things, everyone takes what he thinks is good, but it is understandable that Serbia is not involved in internal affairs. I am grateful to Mr. Vucic on his consistency.”
Did you understand it like this too – Vucic and Nikolic do not want the referendum?
“They told us that we knew what we were doing, support us in accordance with Dayton Agreement, and that the specific political processes were our own and that we would be the ones who created and implemented those processes. It is important that all relevant political sides in RS have said: ‘Yes, we are having the referendum’ after Serbia’s view on not getting involved.
There are those who say that you have poked Vucic in the eye…
“This is said by people prone to sensationalism stories, the people who feed their vanity by such assessments and just say something to be important in their own eyes…”
Why are you so stubborn regarding the referendum?
“I am not stubborn at all; there is a very clear and visible responsibility in the effort to hear an opinion of the people regarding the Republic Day. This was always the question of people, as the creation of RS was the issue of people. For the full 23 years RS was celebrating it and that was not a problem. The crucial question here is not a referendum, it is a reaction. And the action was started by Bakir Izetbegovic.
Is there a chance that you will give up, there are speculations that there will be pressure from Serbia.
“Why would we give up? There would be no pressure. Do not be afraid. Serbia said their opinion and there would be no need for anyone to put it under pressure. And we in RS are used to pressures, we cannot live without them. When they do not put us under pressure, we are lost like in space,” Dodik told Kurir.
REGIONAL PRESS
Dodik: I call on B&H CC to stop making political decisions, Referendum will be held on September 25th (TV1)
Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik stated on Friday that referendum in the RS will take place on September 25th, despite lack of support of Serbia’s authorities. “The RS National Assembly’s (RSNA) decision on referendum is part of a consensus of all political factors. That referendum will be held on September 25th, as announced,” he stressed. He reiterated that decision to hold referendum is result of consensus of all political parties in the RS. Dodik added that is possible High Representative will ban holding of referendum or that temporary measure postponing holding of referendum will be introduced. “We will have referendum on September 25 and there will be no stalemate in that sense,” explained Dodik. He also called on B&H Constitutional Court (CC) to stop making political decisions. Commenting on statement of NDP Vice President Zdravko Krsmanovic saying that the Alliance for Changes (SzP) might re-examine its stances regarding the referendum, Dodik said that he talked with leader of this party who stated that they still support the decision of the RS National Assembly (RSNA) to hold referendum on the Day of the RS. “This referendum is not one about territorial integrity of B&H. This is referendum on the Day of the RS,” Dodik emphasized. He also thanked to Serbian leadership for meeting with political leaders in the RS on Thursday, adding that he understood that Serbia does not support or oppose announced referendum on the Day of the RS “and that they support what is interest of the RS. That is sufficient for me.”
RS opposition leaders still support referendum regardless of Serbia’s stance (BNTV)
Serbian leadership’s decision not to support the referendum triggered different reactions. Despite speculations that opposition in the RS may re-examine its stance on the referendum, leadership of the opposition coalition in the RS deny that. PDP leader Branislav Borenovic stated: “We respect the opinion of both the EU and Serbia, but we should first respect the decision reached by the RS National Assembly.” Borenovic said that, after the referendum, they are ready to peacefully come to a solution that would not be detrimental to any institution of the RS and B&H. “I think it is possible to reach a solution,” Borenovic assessed. NDP leader Dragan Cavic assessed that citizens of the RS are not comfortable hearing that official Belgrade would not support some kind of political activity in the RS. He noted that it has not happened since the time of the war. Cavic underlined that the referendum can be cancelled only with a new decision of the RS National Assembly (RSNA). “That new decision implies that someone should initiate it. NDP will not be the one to initiate it. NDP will not support giving up on the referendum,” Cavic noted. Cavic remarked that no one should play games with the RS citizens. DNS leader Marko Pavic said that the referendum does not affect any constitutional issue, or human and ethnic right of anyone in B&H. “Someone is bothered by the RS Day, and not by the referendum itself. That is why we think the referendum is necessary,” Pavic deems. SDS leader Mladen Bosic said that he expects that B&H Constitutional Court (CC) will take responsibility, “correct its mistake”, and grant the RS’ appeal on this matter. Bosic stressed that there should be political agreement and political will to stop with causing crisis, remarking that precisely SDA leader Bakir Izetbegovic and Dodik have so far done it through their relations. “We do not want to partake in that game,” Bosic concluded.
Bosniak, Croat officials comment Serbia’s decision not to support referendum in RS (TV1)
Serbian leadership’s decision not to support the referendum triggered different reactions. Member of Collegium of B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Sefik Dzaferovic deems it is good that Serbia expressed no support to the referendum, adding it would be even better if Serbia asked from the RS to put the decision on referendum out of force. Member of B&H Presidency Dragan Covic said he already expressed his stance that the authorities in the RS can pass such decisions, but that they must be in line with the Constitutional Court of B&H’s decisions and content of these decisions as well as with the Constitution of B&H. Leader of SDP Nermin Niksic said that he is glad “sense prevailed” in Serbia and this country decided not to act as mentor or someone who can decide about things in B&H. Reporter noted that the RSNA can adopt decision to postpone referendum or decision not to hold referendum only if some of ruling parties support it. Covic and, among other things, discussed the political situation in the region and the announced referendum on the Day of the RS. Bosniak member of B&H Presidency Bakir Izetbegovic deems that lack of a stronger pressure of Serbia on the RS to give up on referendum is not unexpected, because they apparently want to leave it to full responsibility of the RS’ authorities. Izetbegovic assessed that Serbia has shown political maturity at a critical moment. “I am convinced that preserving the order established by the Dayton Peace Agreement represents common interest of B&H and Serbia, i.e. realistic basis for preserving regional stability and peace, which is framework everyone needs for progress,” Izetbegovic noted.
B&H CC President Ceman: Court’s session discussing referendum-related topics may be held on September 17th (BHT1)
President of the B&H Constitutional Court Mirsad Ceman stated for BHT1 that the Court’s plenary session may take place on September 17th. The Court is likely to first declare on the motion of the Republika Srpska (RS) National Assembly (RSNA), demanding review of the CC’s decision declaring the January 9th unconstitutional, and then on the motions filed by B&H Presidency Chairman Bakir Izetbegovic, Speaker of B&H House of Peoples (HoP) Safet Softic and Deputy Speaker of B&H House of Representatives (HoR) Sefik Dzaferovic, demanding the settlement of legal dispute between the RS and B&H. Asked what would mean possible Court’s decision on accepting the RSNA’s motion, Ceman replied that everything would go back to the beginning i.e. “to the moment when the motion was filed”. In that case, he added, other decisions would not be relevant. He stressed that this is just a hypothetical option. “If the CC B&H concludes that there are grounds to reconsider the decision, the case of 9 January as the RS Day will be restarted, which means that the decision on referendum and related requests would no longer be valid and they would have to be put on hold,” Ceman explained.
Ivantsov: OHR should have reacted to Izetbegovic’s appeal regarding RS Day earlier, the only thing that remains is to hold referendum (Nezavisne novine)
The interview with Russian Ambassador to B&H Peter Ivantsov, was recorded immediately before the meeting of Serbian and RS officials which was held on Thursday in Belgrade. Asked to comment the meeting of ambassadors of countries which are members of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC) which was dedicated to the announced referendum on Republika Srpska (RS) Day, Ivanstov reminded that the entire problem started in 2009, when B&H Presidency member Bakir Izetbegovic filed an appeal to B&H Constitutional Court (complaining against marking of January 9 as Day of RS). B&H CC asked High Representative for an opinion, but the High Representative abstained from commenting the issue. “Of course, it is easy to look back and say that this or that decision was bad, but it is clear that the abstention of the High Representative contributed to the problem. Had he pointed out possible problems which might arise from this, maybe today we would not have the issue of referendum, and the meeting of ambassadors on this topic would not take place. Maybe OHR was not professional enough to react, or maybe it chose deliberately not to act and thus favored one of the three constitutive peoples,” Ivantsov noted. He underlined that OHR should have warned that this issue has the potential to cause a problem. Ivantsov added that he can understand the response from the RS, because the RS Day has been celebrated for the past 20 years. “It seems that the only thing that remains is to hold the referendum and show the international community how citizens in the RS see this issue,” he underlined. According to Ivantsov, the only possible solution is dialogue, because there is no doubt that citizens will support the RS Day in referendum. Asked if this means that everybody should take a step back, Ivantsov said that this sounds like a good idea. However, he underlined, all sides should take a step back, and not only the RS. Asked to comment the role of Russia in PIC, Ivantsov said that all PIC members probably have the same goal – peaceful, stable and functional B&H. However, he underlined, the international community should only facilitate the dialogue of local leaders, and not dictate solutions. He also underlined that all B&H political leaders should be rational rather than emotional. Speaking about the work of B&H CC, Ivantsov said that although he is not familiar with its methods of work. However, he emphasized, B&H CC judges should be professionals who make their decisions based on the legal system, but also take into account the feelings of citizens. He expressed hope that reason will prevail in the end and that the situation will calm down. Asked if the High Representative will use the Bonn powers in this case, Ivantsov expressed hope that it will not come to that. He noted that B&H is a sovereign state, and the very presence of OHR limits its sovereignty in a way. “I am against usage of the Bonn powers as a principle. In this concrete case, I think they are out of question,” Ivantsov concluded.
Serbian Ministers react to Inzko statements (N1/Nezavisne novine)
Serbian Minister of Labor, Employment, Veteran and Social Policy Aleksandar Vulin told reporters in Belgrade on Sunday that he is of the opinion that the policy of pressures, which constantly blames Republika Srpska (RS) for something, is not good and that treating all who participate in political life equally and with respect is necessary for the stability of B&H. Commenting on the fact that, High Representative Valentin Inzko recently commented on possible consequences if the referendum on the Day of the RS is held by saying that RS President and leader of SNSD Milorad Dodik is playing with fire, Vulin underlined that Inzko needs to demonstrate that he is the High Representative for the territory of B&H and not the RS only. “All three peoples, as well as representatives of the international community, bear responsibility for peace and stability in B&H. Therefore, policy of pressures and policy which constantly blames the RS for something and depicts it as some kind of factor of instability, unrest and disorder, is not a good policy,” Vulin concluded. Serbian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, Nebojsa Stefanovic, called on High Representative Valentin Inzko to stop threatening the RS. “His job is to secure stability in B&H, not to contribute to instability and increase of tensions with his statements and actions,” Stefanovic concluded.
HDZ leader comments on alleged espionage case (Hina)
Commenting on the arrest of an alleged Croatian spy in Belgrade, Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) leader Andrej Plenkovic said on Saturday that it was one in a number of unusual cases that have been happening lately in the Croatian and Serbian media arenas. He noted that he had no detailed information about the case but believed that all relevant institutions should investigate the matter to determine who the person in question was and if he had had any contacts with any of the Croatian services. “And if he did not, which is what the Prime Minister said today, we should see together with the Serbian authorities what this is about and why the case is being linked to Croatia.” Plenkovic said that tensions should be defused because we have a number of outstanding issues with Serbia and they all date back to the time of Milosevic’s Great Serbian aggression. “We have to deal with those issues, we primarily have to ensure the legal security and dignity of our defenders, and we have to ensure the mutual protection of minorities. I believe that Croatia has reaffirmed its international position because we are an EU and NATO member. On its way to the EU, Serbia still has a large distance to cover in order to achieve our democratic standards in a number of sectors and legal security standards. That journey won’t be either easy or simple. We know what our national interests are in that process and the HDZ-led government will know how to protect them,” said Plenkovic.
URA in coalition with SNP and Demos: It will not allow division about NATO (CDM)
After the Socialist People’s Party (SNP) made decision on joining the coalition, URA Civic Movement did the same. Zarko Rakcevic’s party will run in the general elections on 16 October in the coalition with Miodrag Lekic’s Demos and Srdjan Milic’s SNP. The party leader Zarko Rakcevic confirmed that at a news conference. “We believe that this trio guarantees civic Montenegro, peaceful changes, the European path and that it represents a strong alternative to bad politics. These developments must be stopped. Montenegro does not need a coup. We need peaceful changes for the better,” Rakcevic said. He hopes that the coalition will be a main point bringing together all those who, as he said, are betrayed after the referendum in 2006. He points out that he does not expect any misunderstandings about sharing the parliament seats. Journalists wanted to know whether certain problems could appear in the coalition because URA supports NATO membership of Montenegro, whereas SNP is against it. “It is well known that Montenegro is divided over the issue. It is well known that we have an affirmative attitude. It is known that SNP has a different position. We are gathering around the recovery of Montenegro and NATO is not the most important thing in Montenegro. We do not want to be divided and to insist on divisions. These elections are not about NATO issue. We will not allow to be divided”, Rakcevic said. He added that the three parties will not be the only members of the coalition. “This is a core and backbone. The doors are not closed,” he said.
DP and GI together on elections, Hajdinaga to lead the list (CDM)
Leaders of Democratic Party Fatmir Djeka and Gzim Hajdinaga and Citizens’ Initiative Smail Malic Cunmuljaj and Vaselj Sinistaj reached an agreement on Saturday in Tuzi about taking part in upcoming parliamentary elections together. “We are convinced that our list, led by Hajdinaga, has the largest support of Albanians, because it guarantees the implementation of our requests, and it will gather all the important members of our national community,” they said. They said they are expecting some other subjects joining their list in the coming days.
Macedonia gets technical government (Dnevnik)
Macedonian MPs have officially approved a technical cabinet to lead the country to early elections on 11 December, in the most recent effort to end a nearly two-year political crisis. Emil Dimitriev of the ruling conservative VMRO-DPMNE will still be the prime minister, though now at the helm of a technical cabinet. On 2 September, the parliament agreed that politicians in the opposition be appointed to head the ministries of internal affairs and labor. The Skopje Dnevnik daily reported that the parliament would be dissolved 60 days before the vote, and that the campaign should begin on 20 November.
INTERNATIONAL PRESS
IMF warns Serbia not to overspend despite “rosy” outlook (Reuters, 2 September 2016)
BELGRADE – Serbia’s growth could pick up further next year after strong performance in the first half pointed to a faster-than-expected recovery, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, but warned the government against the temptation to overspend. In its quarterly review, the IMF said it was crucial the country press on with public sector structural reforms as part under its 1.2 billion euro loan agreement in order not to derail a strong recovery. “Potential growth could be doubled by the end of the programme period,” country representative Sebastian Sosa told reporters, adding that public sector companies and utilities needed further streamlining. Despite what he described as a “rosy” short-term outlook, he said the government should resist calls to loosen fiscal purse strings after better-than-expected deficit and growth figures, given the risky macro environment and high public sector debt. “The upcoming mission will focus on the budget for next year and we will discuss potential issues of wages and pensions,” he said. “We will take into account the strong overperformance of the fiscal, account and the need for the decline of public debt in medium term,” Sosa added. He said any fall-out from a Brexit-led European downturn would hurt Serbia’s growth prospects, as could a resumption of the flows of migrants fleeing war in the Middle East, which burdened governments across the region last autumn. While the economic impact of the ongoing post-coup crackdown in Turkey also posed a risk to Serbia, the scale of the impact would be limited given the more modest size of Turkey’s economy compared to Europe’s, he added. He said the IMF, which has repeatedly urged Serbia to prune bloated public sector companies, was satisfied with a decision earlier this week to increase retail electricity prices by less than the lender had wanted. The IMF confirmed an earlier forecast that the economy would expand by 2.5 percent this year and by 2.8 percent in 2017, while the budget deficit would continue to fall, from 2.5 percent in 2016 to 2.2 percent next year.
(Reporting By Thomas Escritt and Aleksandar Vasovic Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)
Balkan Leaders Revive Nationalism for Political Advantage (BIRN, by Sasa Dragojlo, 5 September 2016)
The increased nationalist rhetoric in Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia is a ploy by some politicians to win votes at upcoming elections and by others to distract from economic problems, experts argue.
This summer’s escalation of heated nationalist exchanges between officials from Croatia, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina has been an unpleasant flashback to the rhetoric of the Yugoslav war years.But while the violent potential of nationalism in the Balkans can never be overlooked, experts claim that inflammatory rhetoric is just a method that the political elites are using to manipulate the public for their own advantage. The fact that Croatia’s parliamentary elections are approaching has pushed Social Democratic Party leader Zoran Milanovic’s towards nationalist extremism, while the referendum threats made by Milorad Dodik, the president of Bosnia’s Serb-dominated entity Republika Srpska, are his way of covering up internal political problems with the classic narrative about the survival of Republika Srpska being endangered, experts told BIRN. They also claim that Serbia is far from ‘innocent’ in these disputes, since its officials were deeply involved in the exchange of harsh words and mutual accusations with Bosnia and Croatia, suggesting that Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic deliberately used his ministers to voice the recriminations so he could present himself as a force for peace and stability in the region. Stefan Aleksey, a Belgrade-based political analyst, argues that the nationalist narrative has been used by all post-Yugoslav political elites since the early nineties. “The political elites have been keeping their citizens in a constant state of national tensions for decades,” Aleksey told BIRN. “This is, in a certain way, a ‘ready-made’ mechanism when they have nothing else to offer,” he said. This cycle of recriminations started last December when the Croatian government, then led by Milanovic, closed the border with Serbia over a dispute about which way refugees from the Middle East should travel towards the Earthen Social Democratic Party leader was not careful with his language when talking about Serbia at the time. He was even less so a couple of weeks back when he was caught on tape describing Serbia as “a handful of miserable people” and Bosnia and Herzegovina as “a big she**”, causing angry reactions in both Belgrade and Sarajevo. Milanovic also pledged that Croatia would not leave “the Croats alone with the Bosnia’s in Bosnia and Herzegovina” if the Bosnian Serbs in Republican Ruska seceded in a referendum, as they have threatened to do. Some analysts compared this to a statement by Croatian wartime President Franco Tudjman in the 1990s, in which he claimed to support Bosnia and Herzegovina’s territorial integrity, but added that Croatia would want a part of it if Serbia seized some Bosnian land. Davor Genera, a Zagreb-based political analyst, suggested that if Milanovic returns to the premier’s position after next month’s elections, he could damage the country’s position within the EU. “Milanovic is an outrageously irresponsible politician. He is a typical successor to Franco Tudjman’s rhetoric,” Genera told BIRN. “It is anti-European rhetoric… from a person who does not understand the fundamental principles of the EU, and who speaks from a nationalistic position which overestimates the value of one’s own tradition and the same time understates all others,” he said. Over the summer, Belgrade and Zagreb exchanged several diplomatic protest notes and yet more statements were made that were deemed offensive by the other side. Relations were additionally soured when the Croatian judiciary scrapped the guilty verdict convicting former major-general Branimir Glavas of war crimes against Serbs, and when the Zagreb authorities approved a monument to Miro Baresic, who was convicted by the Swedish courts of the assassination of Yugoslav ambassador Vladimir Rolovic in Stockholm in 1971.Serbia also protested after a court in Zagreb annulled the conviction of bishop Alojzije Stepinac, a prominent supporter of Croatia’s Nazi-allied WWII regime, to which Croatia countered by pointing to the similar court rehabilitation of Draza Mihajlovic, the commander of the Chetniks, the Serb forces which collaborated with the Nazi occupiers. Jovo Bakic, a sociologist and a political analyst, told BIRN that poor relations between Croatia and Serbia have a knock-on effect in Bosnia and Herzegovina. “This atmosphere is unhealthy and it looks like the beginning of the 1990s. In the Balkans, nationalism is politicians’ favorite weapon,” Bakic said. “Tensions between Belgrade and Zagreb always make the situation in Bosnia suffer,” he added. Republika Srpska’s President has added fuel to already flame with the announcement that a referendum will be held in the entity on September 25 challenging the authority of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s state-level Constitutional Court. The referendum is intended to demonstrate public support among Bosnia’s Serbs for holding their annual Day of Republika Srpska on January 9, after the Constitutional Court ruled last year that the holiday was unconstitutional as it was discriminates against non-Serbs. Gjenero argued that the vote is clearly a “trial balloon for a referendum on independence” – something that Dodik has said he will consider. Aleksic meanwhile suggested that Dodik was trying to draw attention away from his internal political problems in governing the entity. “It looks like Dodik has a lot of questions to answer to the public about business frauds and the economic catastrophe in Republika Srpska. One day, the residents will understand what is going on and he probably will not be able to escape into nationalism,” Aleksic said. Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has mostly tried to sound restrained and statesmanlike in comments aimed at his Croatian or Bosnian counterparts, but several of his ministers have used aggressive language, fuelling additional disputes. Serbia’s Labour Minister Aleksandar Vulin has said that “Croatia is sinking into madness” and has on numerous occasions called the Zagreb government “fascistic”. Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic meanwhile recently accused Bosniak politicians of being responsible for the attack on Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic at the Srebrenica commemoration in 2015, while also often reminding Croatian officials about Jasenovac, the WWII concentration camp where some 100,000 people have died, mostly Serbs, Roma and Jews.Aleksic claimed that Vucic’s “wise silence” is just a tactic because, considering the centralised nature of his government, there was no chance that his ministers were doing anything without his consent. “They are just puppets who speak instead of the centre of power – the prime minister – and their words have to be seen just as one component of Vucic’s rhetoric, since it is difficult to imagine that any of them speaks without even tacit permission from the PM,” Aleksic said. “The essential job of ministers is to wear a grotesque nationalistic face and allow the prime minister to wear the mask of a pro-European reformer,” he added. However Vucic did wade into the dispute himself in August, when he wrote to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini and EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn to accuse Croatia of implementing anti-Serb policies and fomenting nationalism. Bakic thinks that Europe’s own economic and political problems, fuelled by the refugee crisis and Brexit, have strongly affected the increase in nationalist rhetoric in the Balkans. “If the context was different, the situation could not escalate like this. In Europe there is also the rise of nationalism and racism in all countries… In France we have the rise of [Marine] Le Pen’s National Front and in Germany we have racist movements like the Alternative for Germany,” Bakic explained. “That makes Balkan nationalists say: ‘Well, we are normal,’” he said.
